The Changing Nature of Conflicts
A hundred years back wars were fuelled by territorial ambitions and also the desire to assert one’s nationalistic identity. Examples of these include the Russo-Japanese wars and the Anglo-French wars fought in the early 19th century. The Second World War has brought about a paradigm shift in the causes that lead to an armed clash between two sides. What made the Second World War interesting was that the Axis Powers, who were primarily blamed for territorial aggressions, had their own reasons for fighting the Allies. Hitler with his brand of Nazism and racial superiority joined hands with Imperial Japan, who were looking to spread their wings and assert the Japanese identity, and Mussolini who had invented Fascism that valued nationalism, militarism and anti-communism.
This marked the beginning of an era where wars would be fought on the basis of ideologies that would be derived not only from socio-economic beliefs but also from beliefs in religious, cultural and racial superiority.
The Korean, Vietnam and the Afghanistan Wars were showdowns between communist and capitalist regimes while the Arab-Israeli conflicts were fought between Zionistic and Islamist cultures. The Islamic Fundamentalists started gaining ground after having tasted success in Afghanistan where the Communist ideology was defeated by a combination of religious fervor and capitalist interests. The 1990’s saw a radical breed of Islam gaining currency across different sectors of the world where people were mobilized in the name of religion and the dream of establishing a pan-Islamic rule. This was also the era when conflicts were reduced in size and increased in intensity and most importantly were fought within boundaries and not across them. The most notable among them would be the Kashmir Separatist movement in India, the Chechen struggle and most importantly the Taliban movement in the Afghanistan theatre. The 9/11 attacks, the London subway bombings and Mumbai blasts also served as reminders to the respective governments that the rules of engagement for these conflicts had changed significantly wherein civilian targets could be attacked without provocation.
The new millennium has added a new dimension to the cause of wars. In a recent speech the Prime Minister of India mentioned that the Naxalite movement was the single biggest threat to the internal security of the country and must be crushed. This movement has its roots in the economic disparity that is prevalent in certain parts of the Indian Territory. Although the Indian Economic success story is touted in various world forums it is an accepted fact that the Indian growth story has been an unequal one. The distribution of wealth is changing dramatically that could potentially lead to the disappearance of the Indian middle class that has served as a realistic and achievable aspiration in one’s quest for a natural economic progression. With the non-existence of the middle class the differential to cross in one’s lifetime would only be too great by which time it would have grown even wider. Currently these wars are being fought in the rural hinterlands of the country but I foresee a future where they might also be fought in the urban areas where people who earn a million rupees a month live alongside those who earn less than a hundred rupees a month.
Although the Naxalite movement may be local to India, it has been seen in a similar form in Nepal. It might not be presumptuous to say that a similar struggle may break out in a resurgent China which has thrown off the shackles of communism and is adopting an axiom which states that “It is glorious to be rich”. At the risk of sounding outlandish, a similar movement may also take roots in the United States where a growing immigrant population may not be able to reap the benefits of the American economic model. However, I suspect that the most vulnerable economies to this conflict would be the developing or the “Third World” ones which may not be able to ensure an equitable distribution of benefits due to the sheer size of its population and also the presence of a corrupt and self serving administration that does not recognize its responsibilities to the nation state.
There are countless exception to the thoughts that I have expressed, such as the Sri Lankan conflict, the Naga secessionist movement, the Irish struggle and Basque nationalism. The intent of this essay is to appreciate the changing reasons for the emergence of conflicts and also the battlegrounds to fight them. The War of the Twenty First Century may very well be fought in your own neighborhood between residents of a sprawling apartment complex and the inhabitants of a slum across the road.
This marked the beginning of an era where wars would be fought on the basis of ideologies that would be derived not only from socio-economic beliefs but also from beliefs in religious, cultural and racial superiority.
The Korean, Vietnam and the Afghanistan Wars were showdowns between communist and capitalist regimes while the Arab-Israeli conflicts were fought between Zionistic and Islamist cultures. The Islamic Fundamentalists started gaining ground after having tasted success in Afghanistan where the Communist ideology was defeated by a combination of religious fervor and capitalist interests. The 1990’s saw a radical breed of Islam gaining currency across different sectors of the world where people were mobilized in the name of religion and the dream of establishing a pan-Islamic rule. This was also the era when conflicts were reduced in size and increased in intensity and most importantly were fought within boundaries and not across them. The most notable among them would be the Kashmir Separatist movement in India, the Chechen struggle and most importantly the Taliban movement in the Afghanistan theatre. The 9/11 attacks, the London subway bombings and Mumbai blasts also served as reminders to the respective governments that the rules of engagement for these conflicts had changed significantly wherein civilian targets could be attacked without provocation.
The new millennium has added a new dimension to the cause of wars. In a recent speech the Prime Minister of India mentioned that the Naxalite movement was the single biggest threat to the internal security of the country and must be crushed. This movement has its roots in the economic disparity that is prevalent in certain parts of the Indian Territory. Although the Indian Economic success story is touted in various world forums it is an accepted fact that the Indian growth story has been an unequal one. The distribution of wealth is changing dramatically that could potentially lead to the disappearance of the Indian middle class that has served as a realistic and achievable aspiration in one’s quest for a natural economic progression. With the non-existence of the middle class the differential to cross in one’s lifetime would only be too great by which time it would have grown even wider. Currently these wars are being fought in the rural hinterlands of the country but I foresee a future where they might also be fought in the urban areas where people who earn a million rupees a month live alongside those who earn less than a hundred rupees a month.
Although the Naxalite movement may be local to India, it has been seen in a similar form in Nepal. It might not be presumptuous to say that a similar struggle may break out in a resurgent China which has thrown off the shackles of communism and is adopting an axiom which states that “It is glorious to be rich”. At the risk of sounding outlandish, a similar movement may also take roots in the United States where a growing immigrant population may not be able to reap the benefits of the American economic model. However, I suspect that the most vulnerable economies to this conflict would be the developing or the “Third World” ones which may not be able to ensure an equitable distribution of benefits due to the sheer size of its population and also the presence of a corrupt and self serving administration that does not recognize its responsibilities to the nation state.
There are countless exception to the thoughts that I have expressed, such as the Sri Lankan conflict, the Naga secessionist movement, the Irish struggle and Basque nationalism. The intent of this essay is to appreciate the changing reasons for the emergence of conflicts and also the battlegrounds to fight them. The War of the Twenty First Century may very well be fought in your own neighborhood between residents of a sprawling apartment complex and the inhabitants of a slum across the road.
posted by Shreerang at 9:36 AM
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